what about the economic situation in the first half of this year? how will the economy work in the second half and beyond? it should be made clear not only from epistemology but also from methodology, especially from the combination of theory and practice.
the economic operation in the first half of the year was investigated between the districts
the economic performance in the first half of this year can be divided into three sections according to different expectations:
from january to the middle of march, economic indicators in all aspects increased steadily, and the national economy showed a good momentum of recovery, laying a solid foundation for the steady start of gdp growth of 4.8% in the first quarter of this year, and the overall economic recovery was better than expected.
from late march to mid-may, employment, industrial production, electricity consumption, freight transportation and other economic indicators were significantly lower, production and business activities were significantly hampered, supply chain and industrial chain circulation was not smooth, consumer consumption was weak, and downward pressure on the economy suddenly increased.
since late may, employment and prices have remained stable on the whole. major economic indicators have stopped their downward trend and started to rebound with marginal improvement. in the second quarter, china's gdp grew by 0.4%, putting it on the track of stabilization and recovery.
despite certain fluctuations in economic performance, the chinese economy overcame multiple pressures and challenges and grew by 2.5% year on year in the first half of this year.
the deep underlying color lies in long-term stability and improvement
from the overall better than expected to the sudden increase in downward pressure, to the bottom of the rebound, on the track of stabilization and recovery, which one of the three ranges of the above three scenarios can best represent the deep background of the chinese economy? in other words, if one were to draw a portrait of the chinese economy, which range of overshoots most closely resembles china's?
the answer is surely the first. this is because the economic performance from january to the middle of march is a continuation of the miracle of rapid economic development over the past four decades of reform and opening-up. it reflects the true performance of the chinese economy and reflects the fundamentals and general trend of long-term stability and sound economic performance.
in contrast, the sharp increase in downward economic pressure from late march to mid-may is clearly directly related to the complex evolution of the international situation and the repeated shocks of the pandemic. since late may, as the epidemic has been brought under control and the resumption of work and production has progressed steadily, major economic indicators have begun to turn, with marginal improvement and repair improving. even in these two ranges, the chinese economy continues to show strong resilience.
in contrast, the former is normal, while the latter is a temporary fluctuation caused by the short-term changes brought about by the impact of the pandemic and the complex evolution of the international situation. the gene of the former lies deep in the national economy and is a comprehensive reflection of various factors in the national economic system. the latter comes from external influences, the result of shocks from factors outside the national economic system. the former is the main stream, the latter is a tributary.
it can be seen that the fundamentals and general trend of the chinese economy lie in long-term stability and sound development.
a unique source of long-term stability and improvement
the question that cannot be avoided and that must be answered clearly is: where are the fundamentals and general trends of china's long-term economic stability and improvement coming from?
this is not only from the economic level, but also to jump out of the economic level, to dig deep from the broad perspective of our "unique history, unique culture, unique national conditions", to find the source of chinese civilization and excellent traditional culture.
here's a list of possibilities:
the chinese people are particularly hard-working and resilient. in the long history of more than 5,000 years of striving for survival and development, the spirit and cultural gene of the chinese nation, which is characterized by unremitting self-improvement, overcoming difficulties, forging ahead with courage and resilience, has also given rise to the indomitable vitality and super creativity of the chinese people. this is where the resilience and potential of the chinese economy lies.
the aspiration and pursuit of the chinese people for a better life has inexhaustible power and source. this inexhaustible driving force and source has been passed down from generation to generation. it is a unique trait, unique endowment and unique value system deeply rooted in the blood of the chinese nation. it has a profound impact on the development and progress of contemporary china and on the spiritual world of contemporary chinese people.
china has more than 160 million market main bodies and super-large market advantages, including all kinds of enterprises, individual industrial and commercial households, farmers' specialized cooperatives, covering all economic units to participate in gdp creation as well as the "aorta" and "capillaries" of the national economy. after more than 40 years of market-oriented reform, these market players are well versed in market rules, familiar with market rules and good at market operation. they have become the foundation of china's economic development and an important force driving economic and social development.
china has established the most complete industrial system in the world. china has become the world's first manufacturing power, the first big trade in goods, foreign exchange reserves, the first big country, gdp exceeding rmb one hundred trillion, ranks the world's second largest economy, gdp per capita more than $ten thousand, the country's economic strength, technological strength, comprehensive national strength has been onto a new level, for the sustained and rapid economic development in china has accumulated a solid foundation.
china's development potential is still very huge and it is still the largest developing country in the world. the demand generated by addressing unbalanced and inadequate development and improving the quality of people's lives is durable and comprehensive. china not only has a large scale domestic demand market, which is rare in the world, but also continues to expand rapidly. there is great potential for urbanization and economic and geographical reallocation, and there is great room for stimulating consumption and expanding domestic demand.
china still has huge dividends of deepening reform. we made breakthroughs in comprehensively deepening reform, highlighted scientific and technological innovation, and carried out historic changes, systematic restructuring, and holistic restructuring in a number of areas. all these provided favorable conditions for accelerating the shift from old growth drivers to new ones and promoting economic structural transformation, adjustment and upgrading, thus fully stimulating and releasing the dynamism of economic development.
china has creatively walked out of a chinese modernization path and completed the industrialization process of the western developed countries that took hundreds of years to complete in a few decades. it has followed the general law of modernization while making independent explorations based on china's national conditions, which has distinctive chinese characteristics. if we continue on this path of chinese modernization, the chinese economy will surely achieve steady and long-term growth.
above all, we have strong political and institutional advantages. adhering to the leadership of the party and the socialist system can maximize the integration of resources, rally the people, and concentrate resources to accomplish major tasks, which has incomparable significant advantages. in promoting development, we should integrate the socialist system with the market economy so that both the government and the market can play their roles effectively. in dealing with challenges, we will be able to unite the strength of the chinese people, work together to overcome difficulties, and form a strong force to overcome all risks and difficulties.
it is the interaction of a series of unique chinese factors that has created the basic background for china's long-term, stable and sound economic development.
firmly seize the initiative in development
it is very important and crucial for us to understand the internal law of china's economic development from a long-term perspective, so as to strengthen the confidence and confidence to stabilize the broad economic market and keep the economy operating within a reasonable range.
it is true that the chinese economy is under pressure. it is becoming more difficult to maintain stable growth, the situation of maintaining employment is serious, and price pressures are rising. in the face of these difficulties and challenges, we must not only recognize the impact of short-term and temporary factors that exceed expectations, so as to climb over obstacles and cope with them calmly, but also look at the long-term trends and fundamentals, so as to strengthen our confidence, stay focused, and firmly seize the initiative in development.
although the economic performance in the second half of the year is still quite unstable and uncertain, but the most difficult period is over. as the impact of the epidemic subsided, the epidemic prevention measures became more precise, a package of measures to stabilize the economy was gradually implemented, and the resumption of work and production, business and market activities were fully promoted. the foundation for a sound economic recovery was steadily consolidated.
among the three pressures of demand contraction, supply shock and expectation weakening, the most important and critical pressure is expectation weakening. stabilize the economic market, the first thing to do is to stabilize expectations. the fundamental way to stabilize expectations is to deepen our understanding of the fundamentals and trends of china's economic development. we need to uphold and improve the basic socialist economic system, deepen reform, continue to promote reform to improve regulation and services, strive to create a stable, fair, transparent and predictable business environment, foster stronger market entities, and unleash greater market vitality and social creativity.
in the face of unexpected downward pressure on the economy and a more severe and complex environment for economic development, we must make greater and strenuous efforts to achieve the best possible outcome. what is urgent now is to seize the window of time and key nodes, strive to tap potential, constantly close the gap between potential economic growth and real economic growth, and turn the background and momentum of china's economic development into a strong ability of china's economic development.
the base color determines the base, base comes from the base color, base color, base means potential. to summarize the above discussion, the fundamentals and general trend of long-term, stable and sound economic development in china have not changed, and will not change. we should have full confidence in this.
source: state-owned assets supervision and administration commission of the state council