the political bureau of the communist party of china central committee held a meeting on december 6 to analyze and study the economic work in 2020. the meeting stressed that the basic trend of steady and long-term improvement of china's economy remains unchanged at present and for some time to come. on the basis of studying and judging the situation, the meeting also made arrangements for comprehensively carrying out the "six stability" work, resolutely tackling the three major challenges and accelerating the development of a modernized economic system.
industry insiders said that next year is the year to complete the building of a moderately prosperous society in all respects and the conclusion of the 13th five-year plan. the meeting's judgment on the situation has reassured the market, and the plan for next year's economic work shows the central government's determination to further accelerate reform and opening-up. to be specific, policies to boost the high-quality development of agriculture, manufacturing and services will be further upgraded, policy support for the regional economy is expected to increase again, and fiscal and monetary policies will also make good use of counter-cyclical adjustment tools.
the basic economic trend remains positive
what about the current and next year's economic situation? the meeting stressed that the basic trend of steady and long-term improvement of china's economy remains unchanged at present and for some time to come. we must view developments and changes in a dialectical way, increase our confidence in success, turn external pressure into a strong driving force for deepening reform and opening wider to the outside world, and concentrate on running our own affairs well.
"since the beginning of this year, china's economy has been on the whole in line with expectations, on the whole reasonable, steady progress." talking about the basic characteristics of the current economic situation, zhang junguang, deputy director of the development research center of the state council, pointed out.
he said that "stability" is reflected in the fact that core macroeconomic indicators such as growth, prices, employment and balance of payments remain within a relatively reasonable range. in the first three quarters of this year, gdp was 6.2% and cpi was 2.5%. in the first ten months of this year, new urban jobs were created, exceeding the annual target of 11 million. "it is not easy for the four core macroeconomic indicators to achieve such results in a very complex development environment at home and abroad." on the other hand, "progress" is reflected in the continued improvement of economic structure, business environment and people's livelihood.
zhang yansheng, a researcher from the academic commission of the national development and reform commission and chief researcher of the china center for international economic exchanges, told the economic information daily that the meeting's judgment on the situation and the setting of the target for next year have given us "reassurance" and given us more confidence. no matter how the world environment may change next year, china will achieve its first centennial goal as planned, win the three major battles, complete the building of a moderately prosperous society in all respects and keep its economy operating within a reasonable range. as a responsible major country, china will power the world economy.
wen bin, chief researcher at china minsheng bank, said the meeting made a new judgment on the economic situation next year. the year 2020 is the year to complete the building of a moderately prosperous society in all respects and the end of the 13th five-year plan. the meeting highlighted reform and opening up as the main driving force for the economy, demonstrating the central government's determination to accelerate reform and opening up by 2020. at the same time, further highlighted the bottom line of stability.
"stability protection" indicates countercyclical adjustment and reinforcement
it is worth noting that compared with the meeting of the political bureau at the end of last year, this year's meeting has some new ideas and highlights many key points of economic work next year.
wen bin said that compared with last year's meeting, increased "stability" requirements. on the one hand, some enterprises are facing difficulties this year and need more attention. on the other hand, it is also the reflection of the bottom line thinking.
lin zhiyuan, deputy director of the center for macroeconomic research at xiamen university, also told the economic information daily that the new "stability" proposal is to ensure the stability of economic growth and avoid systemic financial risks. in the way of realization, it is emphasized to use the counter-cyclical regulation tool again.
monetary policy, the central bank recently released "in the third quarter of 2019 china's monetary policy implementation report, according to maintain composure, continue to implement prudent monetary policy, innovation and improvement of financial macro-control, strengthen the inverse cycle adjustment, in promoting the high quality the against and dissolving risks of developing, properly dealing with the short-term downward pressure, resolute don't do" flood irrigation "at the same time.
cheng shi, chief economist and managing director of icbc international, told the economic information daily that the 2020 monetary policy aims to stabilize the economy within a reasonable range by counter-cyclical regulation. the central bank's quantitative tools will maintain a prudent policy tone. at the same time, the central bank will make efforts on structural instruments to alleviate local social credit contraction pressure and liquidity risks. in terms of specific operation, targeted rrr reduction is expected to become a priority policy tool in the first half of 2020. after inflationary pressures fall in the middle of the year, the room for monetary policy manoeuvre will expand significantly.
in terms of fiscal policy, the ministry of finance recently set a partial new special debt ceiling of 1 trillion yuan for 2020 ahead of schedule. a recent executive meeting of the state council also proposed lowering the minimum capital ratio for some infrastructure projects. industry participants expect that fiscal policy will be more aggressive next year, reflected in the countercyclical adjustment of the increase.
the connotation of "high-quality development" has increased
there are also new expressions for "high quality development". conference pointed out that to speed up the construction of modern economic system and promote the development of agriculture, manufacturing, services quality, strengthen infrastructure construction, promote the formation of complementary advantages high quality development layout of regional economy, promote scientific and technological strength and innovation ability, deepen the reform of economic system, the construction of a new higher level of the open economy system.
wen bin said the meeting proposed to "promote high-quality development of agriculture, manufacturing and services". compared with last year's emphasis on high-quality development of manufacturing, the reform and opening up of agriculture and service industries, market norms and transparency, and enterprise transformation and upgrading will all surpass this year in 2020.
lin zhiyuan also said that the new concept of "promoting the regional economic layout featuring complementary advantages and high-quality development" shows that policy makers attach great importance to the balanced and coordinated development among regions, and the policy support of the advantageous regions is expected to increase again.
it is worth noting that the central committee of the communist party of china and the state council have just issued the outline of the plan for the integrated development of the yangtze river delta. rowan, deputy director of the national development and reform commission of the state council information office press conference in 6, said by further promote the development of regional integration to promote high quality, promote deeper integration by high quality development, efforts to form a high quality development of the regional cluster, in the national development map plate add high quality development.
the meeting also re-emphasized "building a new system of an open economy at a higher level". zhang yansheng said, in general, is to promote higher quality development, higher standards of reform, a higher level of opening up. he said, the second import expo offered to continue to expand the market opening, we will continue to improve the outside world, continue to optimize the business environment, continue to deepen multilateral cooperation, we will continue to build "one belt and one road" and so on five aspects of open, the world economy, and puts forward to build open cooperation to build open innovation of the world economy, open sharing of three aspects such as the initiative of the world economy. in fact, this has outlined the overall framework for further opening-up at a higher level. these measures and initiatives have been put forward in light of the new situation and changes in the international environment. they represent a new, higher-level opening-up system that coordinates both domestic and international development.
source: economic information daily